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9. Future predictions

Return to December 2020 update

Length: 2 min read;  471 words.

Note: The following paragraphs summarize the category of Future predictions observed in December. More information about the specific category from December (and previous months) can be found in the downloaded report(s).The number in square brackets (e.g., [X]) refers to a reference where the reader can find more infomation about a specific statement.  The references can be found in the References list below, Systematized References page or in the dowloaded report.

 

The discussion about future with predictions lessened approximately 30% in December in comparison to September (from 6% to 4.3%) in line with our observation of overall dilution of pandemic related discussions. The community is focused on challenges and uncertainties, less discussing and more patiently waiting for the next developments. The post-pandemic future has become much closer with the vaccine rollout, but it may take until Q4 2021 to fully achieve herd immunity. December brings 2021 and beyond predictions. The pandemic has accelerated existing trends, specifically the Great Dispersion. The pandemic is causing dispersion in even larger industries - the greatest opportunity for wealth creation in decades. Work from home, telemedicine, and remote learning represent an impending disruption of over 25% of the U.S. economy. The largest sectors are about to leapfrog HQ, doctor’s offices, hospitals, and campuses. Commuting and business travel will mostly disappear, bringing benefits to climate change fight. On the other hand, the dispersion will bring erosion of empathy and segregation – today we have social distancing, tomorrow the distancing will be structured. [269]  Accelerated digital transformation is changing the industry from a highly complex, fragmented, and project-based industry to a more standardized, consolidated, integrated and product-based one. The bulk of short- and long-term pandemic-driven construction industry issues will be solved with technology. [237] In September the community was discussing the future of work, while in December the community and companies are planning how to incorporate hybrid workplace into their culture. Real estate will be used differently, more intelligently [270]. Word “pivot” was the 2020 theme, while “thrive” is the word for 2021, a “stabilization” year. The first half of ‘21 will be a slog for sure, but during that time the business models that will stick, and the ones that are never coming back will become clearer. The second half will be a race to dominate the new models and the suppliers to them. Exponential growth is expected as e-commerce accelerates. The commercial space will see a surge in the next few years as tenants return to work and retail will be reinvented to better fit our future needs. [271] Three trends that make us optimistic for 2021: 1) Real estate investment realigns to offer can't-miss experiences; 2) People-first design becomes new currency in building communities; and 3) Pent-up demand, pandemic startups brighten economic outlook. [251] Scott Galloway’s 2021 predictions: 1) resto becomes a $1000 stock and Sonos hits $40; 2) Airbnb hits $200/share and gets into short-term office space; 3) Walmart goes deeper into healthcare via acquisition; 4) Bitcoin surpasses $50,000; and 5) Robinhood is the new menace. [250] 2021 will be a supercharged economy - excess savings have supported households in 2020, and rising wages will boost them next year. [97] By 2025, 97 million new roles may emerge that are more adapted to the new division of labor between humans, machines and algorithms. [107]

See September Category Summary

References

[97] “Get Ready for a Supercharged Economy”, Bloomberg.com, Dec. 01, 2020.
[250] “2021 Predictions & Person of the Year | No Mercy / No Malice”, No Mercy / No Malice | Professor Scott Galloway. (accessed Feb. 17, 2021)
[251] “Gensler: 3 Trends That Make Us Optimistic for 2021”.
[269] “The Great Dispersion | No Mercy / No Malice”, No Mercy / No Malice | Professor Scott Galloway. (accessed Feb. 05, 2021)
Monthly Summary: 
AEC and Pandemic: Response and Impact - December 2020 Update