3. Procedures of shifting workflows
Return to June 2020 Update
Length:20 min read; 4100 words. Includes the following 6 subcategories:
- 3.a) Current situation
- 3.b) Remote work; Work from home (WFH)
- 3.c) Site procedures
- 3.d) Supply chain
- 3.e) Workspace re-entry
- 3.f) Financials; cashflow / Contracts/ Litigations
Note: The following paragraphs summarize the category of Procedures of shifting workflows observed in June. More information about the specific category from June (and previous months) can be found in the downloaded report(s).The number in square brackets (e.g., [30]) refers to a reference where the reader can find more information about a specific statement. The references can be found in the References list below, Systematized References page or in the downloaded report.
In June the interest in Procedures of shifting workflows has increased from 41.2% in May to 45.1% in June. The challenges reported in May are aggravating in June as the economies re-open. Specifically, the issues with cash and working capital, and contracting with follow-up lawsuits are standing out in June prompting us to add a new subcategory of Financials; cashflow / Contracts/ Litigations.
a) Current situation
The AEC industry continues to experience economic difficulties and oscillations triggered by the pandemic; project cancellations and delays [138][139][140], job losses/gains, reopening issues, issues of safety guidelines, cashflow problems, litigations [141], but the economic impact of the pandemic is substantially lesser than in industries such as retail and transportation, and June is showing recovery start.
“Revenues are down for most, with 38% citing revenue decreases of greater than 10%. Still, 15% have seen revenues grow.”[142] An increasing number of contractors have reported that projects they expected to start in June or later have been cancelled (16% in April, 20% on May 7, and 24% on May 24). [143] In the US, Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) reported historically devastating March/ April period when the construction industry lost 975,000 jobs, 13% of the workforce [143]. In May the industry rebounds by adding 464,000 net new jobs, the largest monthly increase in construction jobs since the government began tracking employment in 1939. [144] The impact on the construction supply chain is “Less than expected”[146].
The industry is going digital and virtual; [149] 51.9% report digitization increase. [142] New technologies are raising funds for development and/or application in the industry [150] The industry is building coalitions to survive and thrive [151][152]. Governments are rolling out plans to boost the industry with major infrastructure projects [153]. The AEC industry is better positioned to survive and thrive than other industries and it seems resilient in current situation and optimistic about the future no matter the shape of the recovery (V or W). ViaTechnik’s research showed that “of the people surveyed 72% said it was “very likely” or “moderately likely” their firm would survive a post-COVID environment. Only 5% called their firm’s survival “unlikely.” For context, similar surveys in the restaurant industry have found anticipated failure rates of 40% or more.” [142]
b) Remote work; Work from home (WFH)
Gartner predicts that companies will increase their remote workforce by 18% after the COVID-19 pandemic (48% of the workforce from 30% pre-pandemic predictions). These numbers are likely to continue to grow [315], as companies like Facebook, Twitter, Square, Shopify, Group PSA, Box, and Slack plan to make WFH the new normal indefinitely [316][317]. 47% of CEOs said the crisis will fundamentally alter their organization's approach to remote work in the long term.
The employees’ remote work satisfaction varies depending on the type of work. A West Monroe poll found that 91% of employees agree they are just as productive working from home as they are in the office. [318] McKinsey & Co. research found that 80% of people questioned report that they enjoy working from home. 41% say that they are more productive than they had been before and 28% that they are as productive. [319] Countless services are offering remote work management platforms such as Oracle NetSuite [320] and Aptible [321]. Cybersecurity is remote workplace vulnerability [322], and IoT and AI could enable companies to restart their business during COVID-19, specifically considering issues with remote work, physical distance, and contactless transactions [161].
“There is some evidence that data-based, at-a-distance personnel assessments bear a closer relation to employees’ contributions than do traditional ones, which tend to favor visibility. Transitioning toward such systems could contribute to building a more diverse, more capable, and happier workforce. TED Conferences [323], the conference organizer and webcaster, has established virtual spaces so that while people are separate, they aren’t alone. A software company, Zapier [324], sets up random video pairings so that people who can’t bump into each other in the hallway might nonetheless get to know each other.”[178]
While the community is developing strategies and guidelines for safe return to the workplace (such as AIA’s Reopening America: Strategies for safer buildings [325]), at the same time the community is reimagining the work and workplaces after COVID-19 [319]. “There is a changing attitude on the role of the office and there are no one-size-fits-all solutions. Even within an organization, the answer could look different across geographies, businesses, and functions, so the exercise of determining what will be needed in the future must be a team sport across real estate, human resources, technology, and the business. Tough choices will come up and a leader must be empowered to drive the effort across individual functions and businesses. Consultants offer strategies to reconstruct how work is done; decide ‘people to work’ or ‘work to people’(fully remote, hybrid remote, hybrid remote by exception and on site); redesign the workplace to support organizational priorities; and resize the footprint creatively (The value at stake is significant. Over time, some organizations could reduce their real-estate costs by 30%.)” [319]
c) Site procedures
The communication about construction safety remains on the approximately same level through May and June; stay “safe and sound” is the motto [328]. All the companies have implemented various governmental requirements for PPE, worker screening, site/tool sanitation and other measures with flexibility, patience and significant effort. The companies report daily protocols for screening anyone, including employees, before coming onto a jobsite/ an office. “We have a COVID-19 Exposure Prevention, Preparedness and Response Plan that follows OSHA and CDC guidance. And all our employees have been instructed on how to practice good hygiene, sanitize tools and equipment and execute work while practicing physical distancing.” [191]
The contractors are reporting issues with open-for-interpretation official local and state guidelines and continuous updates (although less frequent than in the beginning of the outbreak [329][330][331]. Companies are hiring medical professionals for COVID-19 guidance, site visits and protocol development [220] and trying to figure out who should pay for extra time to keep construction workers safe [210]. The contractors report self-certification and self-policing regarding the H&S guides [221].
The key jobsite challenges are increased wrench time due to new health and safety measures, difficulty sharing information, and lack of on-site field engineers. Experts recommend “reviewing the entire worker journey to identify areas of improvement, adopting a Takt planning model (a planning and scheduling method that structures work into timed blocks) and setting up new lines of digital communication to help information flow among all involved in the project. Then assess increased wrench time due to new procedures. Use Takt planning for synchronized logistics and to manage disruption due to spacing requirements. Develop new processes to mitigate lack of support and communication on-site.” [215]
Software companies are developing tech safety nets to measure physical distancing on site [332] such as Triax Technologies [333], Kwant.ai [334], Smartvid.io [335], and Genda Tech [336]. Contact tracing technologies are developed for the jobsite and workplace re-entry [337] that demands visibility, employee engagement and trust (such as PwC [338] 's enterprise contact tracing, Appian's application approach [339], and Salesforce's Work.com Command Center [340]. Furthermore, integrated solutions that combine contactless kiosks and robust security systems with strategies applied for office building re-entry might be used for the construction sites as well. [341][342] An example is a technology called AiVR that combines AI-powered video monitoring and recognition abilities. [343]
d) Supply chain
The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) reports that at least 45% of contractors are experiencing delays or disruptions related to the outbreak. Joe Piro, the Vice President of Supply Chain for Gilbane Building Co. claims that the COVID-19 pandemic impact on supply chain is “less than expected.”; these delayed projects will cause “softening” demand, higher inventory (supply), and, generally, lower prices throughout the remainder of 2020. [146] The supply chain went from “just-in-time” to “just-in case” [345] or to “just-in-time and just-in-case” [178].
The pandemic magnified existing supply chain challenges; supply chains are reactive, inflexible, and at best responsive. Restore, rethink and redesign are the key outlooks when assessing the state of operations, including security of supply, cash position, cost-cutting opportunities, employee H&S guidelines, and customer requirements. The goals are: on higher level: measure continuous improvement to help companies mitigate risks and build resilience; be transparent and accountable: what you see is what you get; share the benefits and the costs of sustainable production; in the supply chain: diversification of the manufacturing footprint and supplier and distribution base; scenario analysis of supply-chain events, to provide additional options for responding to potential disruptions’; real-time information and visibility, to improve response time to interruptions; full visibility of the supply chain; overall governance, command and use of a control tower to coordinate responses and everyday operations [346][347].
The headlines in June highlight the requirement for manufacturers to reassess how they address supply chain management; either due to a geopolitical issue or the pandemic, the need to regularly refactor supply chains is the new norm. Chris Haydon, president, SAP Procurement Solutions: “The visibility and the agility needed today is moving and accelerating towards manufacturers valuing digital networks”; no matter if the issue stems from the physical network used to buy and sell materials, the logistical network orchestrating the delivery of materials or the need to better assess the performance and risk of the supply chain. Strategies to address the issues include remapping as needed, finding talent continuity, pressure testing, and understanding new dependencies. [348]
[349] Investment in technology and considerations on sustainability in a resilient supply chain will be key. [248][350] Reshoring alone does not necessarily create resiliency. Mapping and stress testing are a much more effective approach.[351][352] “Start redesigning supply chains to optimize resilience and speed by creating the most valuable supply chain that involves neither offshoring nor onshoring but rather “multishoring”—and with it, the reduction of risk by avoiding being dependent on any single source of supply. Speed still matters and the risk evaluation the level of risk and decide what to do, using rigorous scenario planning and bottom-up estimates of inventory and demand. In some critical areas, governments or customers may be willing to pay for excess capacity and inventories, moving away from just-in-time production. In most cases, however, we expect companies to concentrate on creating more flexible supply chains that can also operate on a just-in-case approach. Think of it as “nextshoring” for the next normal to build long-term resilience and flexibility.” [178]
3.e) Workspace re-entry
June is marked by countless official and unofficial strategies and guidelines for workplace re-entry. Some companies are reorganizing work and implementing WFH as standard, while others are eager to return their employees into workplaces with built “cultures”[365][366]. The re-entry will be costly; e.g., Wall Street firms have calculated the cost of returning to Wall street as $18,000 per banker; due to measures such as outfitted air-conditioning systems with better filters for recycled air and toiled lids inside bathroom stall to avoid the spread of coronavirus-carrying aerosols that can circulate when toilets are flushed [44]. These measures seem easy fixes; the real estate is discussing how to use big data for COVID-19 response and repurpose AI-driven smart building systems for health checking, contact tracing and securing protocol compliance. [367][368]
The community is discussing the future of work and workplace [158][159][160][369][170]. Increased ability to work remotely will also come with the opportunities to completely reshape how our workplaces are designed. [160] The goal is to reach “Level 5 - “Nirvana” of distributed work performance scale where and employee is consistently performing better than any in-person organization could. Effortless effectiveness." [370] Possible future workplace scenarios are “office forward, blended week, team based, choice based, distributed”.
Changes are expected in design of workplace physical real estate – shell and interiors, in net office demand, and locational preferences, in outlook for office investing (real estate) including enhanced building planning: restroom, corridors and stairs, generous spacing – approx. 20% increase per employee space requirements; virus resistant technologies: touchless, wellness screening, robotic UV cleaning, air filtration; third party testing, medical staff on board, etc. [317]
Almost every larger architectural office has published guidelines or strategies for workplace re-entry (such as Gensler’s Ten considerations for transitioning back to work in a Post-COVID-19 world based on their pre-corona work and the Wisp tool [219][371](1) rethink density to prioritize physical distancing; 2) plan phased scenarios for returning to work; 3) identify essential workers; 4) reconfigure flex spaces; 5) reconsider the use of free address seating areas; 6) track who sits where; 7) introduce shift work; 8) designate isolation rooms; 9) plan and communicate cleaning regimens; 10) screen for admittance to the office); Perkins and Will creates guideline for a safe return to the office during COVID-19 [218] (understand the phases of the pandemic, develop a framework for the return, understand the risks of returning, assess employee readiness, determine your facility’s capacity, identify who returns first, evaluate continued remote work, consider scheduling strategies, implement operational changes, reinforce behaviors & messages); Cushman & Wakefield's model for a "6 Feet Office" including six “6-feet” rules for scan, routing, workstation, facility and certificate [216]; MASS releases spatial strategies for restaurants in response to COVID-19 [372], and Rockwell Group releases design strategies for outside dining post COVID-19 [373]).
The most guidelines related impactful event in June is publishing of WELL Health-Safety Rating for all building and facility types, an evidence-based, third-party verified rating focusing on operational policies, maintenance protocols and design strategies to address a post COVID-19 environment. [217][223][224] “WELL rating will be equally important as LEED.” [317]
3.f) Financials; cashflow / Contracts/ Litigations
The industry is experiencing economic difficulties and oscillations triggered by the pandemic; project cancellations, delays, job losses/gains; but overall, the situation is substantially better in comparison to other industries (such as retail) and we should stay “cautiously optimistic”.
ABC reported historically devastating March/ April period when the construction industry lost 975,000 jobs, 13% of the workforce [143]. In May the industry rebounds by adding 464,000 net new jobs, the largest monthly increase in construction jobs since the government began tracking employment in 1939. [144] The AGC’s June survey shows that 48% respondents were directed to halt or cancel work by a project owner in the time period. COVID-19 was the most cited result for halting a project (33%) followed by an expectation of reduced demand (28%)[154][155].
The severity of the impacts varies across states in the US and globally. [374] [375] [376] “Revenues are down for most, with 38% citing revenue decreases of greater than 10%. Still, 15% have seen revenues grow.”[142] An increasing number of contractors have reported that projects they expected to start in June or later have been cancelled (16% in April, 20% on May 7, and 24% on May 24). [143] AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for May was 32.0 compared to 29.5 in April, but still represents a significant decrease in services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any number below 50 indicates a decrease in billings). “There are growing signs of activity beginning to pick up in some areas, but others are seeing a pause as pandemic concerns continue to grow.” [147]
Architects’ Council of Europe provide an overview of the COVID-19 impact on the industry in public sector: 90% survey respondents report that projects continue but at a slower pace; 75% report investment decisions are postponed; 70% report delays in the approval process due to an understaffed public administration; 50% report clients are cancelling or suspending projects. In private work architects mainly report non or late payment problems (65%); investment decisions are postponed (90%); projects continue but at a slower pace (90%). Architectural Design Competitions continue to be launched in most responding countries (76.5%).[156]
Although ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator rose to 7.9 months in May, (an increase of less than 0.1 month from April’s reading), top three concerns of the industry remain: 1) Financial impact, including effects on results of operations, future periods and liquidity and capital resources (71%); 2) Potential global recession (64%); and 3)The effects on our workforce/reduction in productivity (41%). [377]
“Government-induced slowdowns weren't the only factor leading to decreased employment. Owner cancellations are also forcing many firms to furlough or terminate employees, Simonson said, noting that the association's latest survey found that owners are canceling jobs for a variety of reasons, including safety concerns, reduced demand and loss of financing.” [143] “The biggest concern is how long it will take to actually reboot. Economic uncertainty is a big factor considering the construction industry always lags the overall economy due to the long-term nature of our contracts.”[191]
Real estate continues to struggle [148]; only 46% of retail tenants and 75% of office/other commercial tenants paid all of these charges by mid-May (up to 5% less than in April and substantially less than in March when over 90% of renters payed their rent on time). [148] Legal and ethical questions remain. The force majeure clause is not in all rental agreements and legal experts have different interpretations. Some jurisdictions have restricted building access to organizations that don’t qualify as essential services. If tenants can’t use their spaces, should they be paying rent? Such gray areas set the stage for conflict. But through communication and collaboration, landlords and tenants can address the conflict. Flexibility is the operative word. Some landlords, for instance, are offering rent relief agreements. Many such agreements allow: Non-payment for three to four months and spread out the accumulated balance over the remaining life of the lease; Non-payment for three to four months and add the accumulated balance as a bullet payment at the end of the lease (last month of occupancy) ; Non-payment for three to four months and extend the lease by another 12 to 60 months at a rate that is higher than the usual rent; A 50% reduction in rent for six months and spread out the remaining 50% across future payments after the six months and attach it to last month of occupancy. [148]
Pandemic induced challenges such as project delays and disruption of supply chains have forced contractors to comb through their contracts in fear of potential lawsuits. Law firms such as Holland & Knight provide websites with free information on how to legally act in the pandemic caused new situation [378]. All the affected contractors familiarize themselves with the following 7 contract terms: 1) Notice to contractual partners, 2) Document all impacts; 3) Carefully review the language of your contract to determine whether impacts resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak are covered as an excusable delay meaning a Force Majeure and/or Frustration of Performance ; 4) OSHA, Workplace Safety and Health Compliance ; 5) Subcontractors, Material Suppliers and Project Supply Chains (when faced with impacts concerning the availability of supplies and materials, contractors and subcontractors should request that suppliers provide delivery updates on a weekly basis and, when possible, even more frequently; timely identification of alternatives for materials and/or suppliers; and/or any efforts to mitigate these potential impacts by maintaining constant communication with suppliers and manufacturers will pay significant dividends); 6) Insurance, Indemnification and Mitigation; 7) Suspension and Termination. [378]
Richard Reizen, partner and chair of the construction practice at Gould & Ratner LLP in Chicago explains different contractual models: a) cost plus (the most flexible model because the design, material selection and scope of work can be modified throughout the project); b) integrated project delivery (IPD) (IPD is an approach that sees the owner, designer and contractor, and sometimes major subcontractors, working together as a team and signing a single contract; this early collaboration, if done right, can avoid delays, change orders and budget overruns by working out design conflicts and other potential problems before construction begins – in the COVID-19 case everyone absorbs some of the risks); c) Making other forms of agreement more flexible is possible as well. “The key is to have a hands-on owner, a committed team willing to try something different, and to some degree, trust among the players.” [213][212]
“Conventional contract language and claims management are not well suited to the uncertainty we are seeing, since project owners and financiers can’t accurately revise programs and models. When construction and the global supply chain come to a halt, it puts many contractors and suppliers at risk of not just missing milestones and delivery targets but going out of business entirely. Every stakeholder faces risks from revenue delays, time and cost overruns, reduced cash flow, and default and termination. Everyone’s best interest to work together, i.e., implement a standby agreement with the primary goal of ensuring the project can continue with minimal additional delay as restrictions related to COVID-19 are progressively lifted. [379]
Otherwise litigations can occur. Constantine Partasides Senior Solicitor at Courts of England and Wales, argues that that new procedural concept should be introduced on national and international levels. “The wave of claims is already arriving; if it is dealt slowly and inconsistently with no regard of reaching outcomes to minimize the economic disruption, our recession will be deeper and longer, and our recovery shallower and slower. Classical contract solutions do exist and they offer us many solutions but in these exceptional times we should be looking beyond classical binary solutions and bankruptcy laws: Create a multidisciplinary team of lawyers and economists to advise governmental and international institutions what are the terms of such a code together to take and create a procedural approach – such concept can be also introduced at a dispute resolution stage by introducing greater flexibility, new claims mechanisms including mass claim mechanisms by which parties agree to refer their disputes to a more alternative dispute resolution method – the parties agree to empower their judicator with a mandate to arrive to a dispute solution that takes into account not only the strict impossibilities or otherwise performance but also the particular onerousness of the performance in the circumstances of the pandemic.” [214]
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