7. Buildings & cities for a next normal

Return to June 2020 Update

Length: 10 min read; 2000 words. Includes the following 7 subcategories:

7.a) Healthcare facilities
7.b) Offices
7.c) Residential buildings
7.d) Commercial buildings & mix-use programs (retail, entertainment, hospitality, sports); Industrial buildings
7.e) Education; buildings
7.f) Renovation/ revitalization / adaptive re-use projects
7.g) City planning; Smart cities / Infrastructure / Landscape & marine projects

Note: The following paragraphs summarize the category of Buildings & cities for a next normal observed in June. More information about the specific category from June (and previous months) can be found in the downloaded report(s).The number in square brackets (e.g., [30]) refers to a reference where the reader can find more information about a specific statement. The references can be found in the References list below, Systematized References page or in the downloaded report.

In May we introduced this category as architects, engineers, city planners, building owners, building managers, developers and the real estate industry started intensely discussing our built environment during and after the pandemic. The discussion intensifies in the second half of May and June focusing on healthy smart buildings [161][162][163][368], the future of living [164] ("In the future home, form will follow infection" [165]), the future of work and workplace [158][366][159], cities with infrastructure [166][167][168], and the resiliency and sustainability [169][170] highlighting regularly that this crisis is a “dress rehearsal for climate change” [513].

It is interesting to note that even architects and urban planners who are always thinking and designing for the future are somewhat caught in the current fast-paced developments – something that was a “future prediction” a month ago is a current situation or a challenge this month. Countless unofficial strategies and/or guidelines for workplace re-entry and building and cities design to address current challenges have inundated the market. All institutions and largest architectural firms have issued guidelines and/or strategies for different building functions (such as AIA’s Reopening America: Strategies for safer buildings [325]; Gensler’s Ten considerations for transitioning back to work in a post-COVID-19 [219]; and Cushman & Wakefield's model for a "6 Feet Office" [216]).

Overall, the discussion about Buildings and cities for a next normal seems to slightly decrease in June (from 30% in May to 25.8% in June). This is due to community’s focus on business strategies and the challenges with workflow shifts. Furthermore, in June we introduced two new categories stemming from Buildings and cities for the next normal; namely, Official Strategies / Guidelines // Rules / Regulations and Building operations. The first-ever WELL Health-Safety Rating for all building and facility types to address a post COVID-19 environment has been published on June 29 [217]. City-planning related, National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO) releases Streets for Pandemic Response and Recovery in the Fight Against the COVID-19 [514].

7.a) Healthcare facilities

The focus on healthcare facilities lessened in June and equalized with the interest in other building types. The emergency healthcare facilities remain the discussion topic as the outbreak intensifies and due to expected future crises. For example, three major architecture firms (Perkins and Will with Schmidt Hammer Lassen Architects and Arup Group [531]; HOK and Germfree [532]; and Grimshaw with SG Blocks Inc. and Osang Healthcare [533]) proposed school buses and shipping containers for accessible (mobile, prefabricated) testing labs [534]; and WZMH Architects designs smart screening and testing pod for COVID-19 [535].

Though in emergency, architects are superficial; for example, due to the outbreak Delhi, India uses 500 train carriages as hospital wards [14]. In June the community also discussed their usual topics: new and/or currently open competitions (Quarantine Facility Design for Temporary Healthcare Facility [536]); awards (such as European Healthcare Design Awards 2020 EHD2020 [537]); how to improve healthcare facilities (such as spaces for communication in hospital to assess spatial proposals for their impact on the quality of care of healthcare providers) [538]; best practices in healthcare design [539]; and smart hospitals (i.e., digital solutions to help drive patient-focused healthcare [493][494]).

7.b) Offices

The discussion continues in June about the future of work, workspace and workplace re-entry (more in the Workspace re-entry section above). “To reopen, we must manage the building, the people and the anxiety through all phases of recovery.” [389] Top concerns are proximity to others (58%); cleanlines of shared building spaces (elevators, shared lobbies) (52%); and differing levels of coworkers’s compliance with new office protocols (45%). Workers are most excited about in-person social interaction (88%); connection to company office culture (54%); separation between work and home (52%); and return to normal routine (52%).[160]

“Build a culture of trust in the COVID-era workplace.” [542] To imagine a new workplace one must: “identify and discard old-world, pre-COVID metrics, measures, and assumptions; think about the workplace(s) that are emerging, or that may emerge; and find the new value proposition for your business and your individual skill set; and seize this new opportunity to make the workplaces of the future healthy, resilient, and sustainable.” [170][543] The goal is healthy smart building, reaching the highest “Nirvana” level in both occupant’s productivity and wellbeing [159][370], and building’s performance (smart building system reaching its objectives) [469][447].

Moody REIS Analytics for “the office sector has not registered many delays, mostly because developers have not flooded the space with product. Tight lending policies have also removed the threat of over building. Partly due to a surge in pandemic-driven remote working, Moody's expects vacancies to rise approximately three points by 2020, a record high for the sector.” [544][545]

7.c) Residential buildings

"In the future home, form will follow infection. We must design immunity boosting homes; layouts determined by need, and not by history, tend towards multifunctionality and adaptability; go back to basics such examine what is good indoor hygiene; be smart and not sterile (e.g., touchless tech); design living rooms for active rest and play (boost healthy habits); the kitchen is no longer a trophy; home is a human-centric revived wealth hub with spaces for living, not speculation and with one at least mandated communal green space per new home. [165] The future of living should include self-sustainability and “technoindigenuity” [164][546]. Moody REIS Analytics finds that the crisis could result in more people moving away from big cities like New York, Los Angeles and Chicago to smaller towns like Madison, Wisconsin, and Durham, North Carolina. [547]

7.d) Commercial buildings & mix-use programs (retail, entertainment, hospitality, sports)

Canceled or delayed projects in transportation, entertainment and sports continue to fill the news; such as SoFi Stadium that has been just opened but with no event – “paying the price for lifting its curtain during a pandemic” [138]; of 15 airport construction projects in the US; 6 are going forward, 6 have been postponed or slowed, and three have been stopped/canceled [139]; and Tellurian delays construction on $27B Louisiana energy project”[140].

There are good news that we can look forward to such as “Helsinki to build Architecture and Design Museum as part of post pandemic recovery plan” [171], Qatar's 2022 World Cup 'Diamond in the Desert' stadium completed [172] (if we could only press fast-forward to 2020!); MAAT, the museum of art, architecture, and technology in Lisbon, Portugal has officially reopened its doors on June 10 [173]; and Barcelona opera house reopens with performance to 2,292 plants [46] – the plants will be donated to hospital workers. HOK reports rise in a new type of entertainment: e-sports arenas [174]. “Business is moving outdoors;” [175] such as dining [373] and sports (such as outdoor yoga in Toronto’s open spaces [176]. Public multifunctional spaces are reimagined [177]. The future of restaurants continues to be reimagined. [550][551]

Retail real estate continues to struggle (51% of retail tenants paid their base rent by mid-May). [148] Moody REIS Analytics finds that due to online shopping, “retailers had not brought much in the way of new construction this year, so delays were not significant as they relate to total space. For example, the percentage of decrease in retail projects pre- and post-coronavirus was 15.7%. On the other hand, the uptick in online shopping during the lockdowns has increased the need for warehouse and storage space, so the industrial sector should benefit. However, in the short term, there still could be a pause in construction while developers wait out the peak of the crisis and try to determine exactly what the need for new warehouse space will be once the pandemic dies down. The sector will not go unscathed, however, as Moody's expects total industrial space delivered in 2020 to be 89.3 million square feet, down from a pre-pandemic predicted figure of 120 million square feet.” [544][545]

7.e) Education; Buildings

Schools all across the world are starting to reopen, as countries lift their lockdowns. Various measures have been put in place: physical distancing and plastic shields and sanitizers (Denmark, Netherlands), staggered school shifts (Australia),and testing and temperature checks (Cyprus, Shanghai). [557] Curl la Tourelle Head Architecture has built the first socially distanced tent, a pop-up school proposal in London [558]. The discussion about pros and cons of online education continues [559][169]. New research suggests students are learning considerably less from virtual environments (US students in grades 3-8 are anticipated to make only an estimated 70% of the reading gains and 50% of math gains compared with what they would typically learn in a school year) [560]. “What will US college be like in the fall?” including the coursework organization, campus housing and what will happen with international students – can they take classes from their homelands? [561][562][563][564]; and about remote academic research issues [565].

7.f) Renovation/ revitalization / adaptive re-use projects

The interest in this subcategory had decreased over 40% since May as the community is focused mostly on other building types and workspace re-entry. We expect this trend to continue in the short-term, but then we predict will substantially increase in the long run as future brings less new buildings (e.g., 80% of the homes we will be living in by 2050 have already been built [165]). “There is a creative boom in outdoor architecture and design.” Examples of revitalized/ renovated outdoor spaces for all: Superkilen, Copenhagen; Marsa Plaza, Oman; Gasholder Park, London; StoDistante, Italy; The High Line, New York [581].

7.g) City planning; Smart cities / Infrastructure / Landscape & marine projects

The discussion about this subcategory increased 47% in June. It is time to reinvent the cities: “COVID-19 is showing us how to design better towns and cities, with fewer cars and cleaner air. So, the proposition is not to rush from dense city to atomized exurb. Rather it is to encourage an adjustment of priorities towards towns and cities in general. It is not about mass internal migration but about incremental change. Most people will stay where they are. Most people’s lives will not be transformed by remote working. But for at least some people, some of the time, the advantages of online interactions will outweigh the disadvantages. It might mean that you only need to visit a big-city office once a week, for example, rather than every day.” [585]

City planning should highlight green and open and not crowded public spaces, convenient for a safe social life (Milan, Italy). [586] London city planners explore strategies of active mobility, high streets reimagined and resilient neighborhoods. “Cities around the world are widening cycle lanes and pavements: Paris has added 650 km of cycle lanes, Lima has added 300 km, and New York has added 64 km since the lockdown; similar, albeit more modest, measures are being rolled out across the UK with road closures, speed restrictions, pop-up bike lanes and wider pavements”); “Crises and catastrophes focus our attention and sharpen our commitment to protect lives, and in the process improve the quality of life -what we need now is good governance and policies that will enable progressive change; then designers can then work to reimagine and reengineer our cities towards healthier streets, revitalized high streets, and more resilient neighborhoods.” Do not “scapegoat cities (…) cities are and have always been the engines of progress, places where innovation and creativity take root. (…) we believe it (the city) will emerge stronger on the other side because of the density of talent that will transform this challenge into an opportunity.”[587] [588]

On the other hand, “the pandemic has put a strain on our digital infrastructures, especially in under-served communities.” [589] The social culture of cities is changing. [590] Protest-related discussions included statues that are important part of urban spaces. [591] Infrastructure projects are gaining momentum in economic recovery; “PM Johnson demands Britain 'Build, build, build' to beat COVID-19 slump.” [592] Smart cities for tracking epidemic.

National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO) released guidelines: Streets for Pandemic Response and Recovery in the Fight Against the COVID-19 [514]. It compiles emerging practices from around the world and includes implementation resources for cities and their partners for the following categories: critical services, managing speeds, sidewalk extensions, safe crossings, slow streets, open/play streets, bike & roll lanes, transit lanes, transit stops & access, pick-up & delivery zones, outdoor dining, markets, school streets, streets for protest and gatherings & events.