9. Future predictions
Return to March 2021 update
The COVID-19 crisis provoked divergent, even dramatic, reactions, with some industries taking off and others suffering badly; the effect was to shake up historic norms and portfolios are restructuring. When the economy settles into its next normal, such sectoral differences can be expected to narrow, with industries returning to somewhere around their previous relative positions. What is less obvious is how the dynamics within sectors are likely to change. [91] Experts are using lessons from past to predict the future. Scott Galloway predicts sonic entrepreneurship boom as the pandemic was shorter than previous recessions and the recovery will be K-shaped: …”The best time to start a business is on the heels of a recession.” In the next 36 months he believes the US economy will birth a new generation of web 3.0 firms and leaders due to three factors: a) unprecedented stimulus and savings resulting in a Nazaré-like wave of consumer spending; b) a gestalt among consumers and enterprises to question the status quo, and be open to new products and services; and c) the emergence of new fields and the capital to disrupt traditional industries as immunities kick in and monopoles are broken up. He predicts four dispersion trends that will affect AEC: 1) headquarters are changing: remote work will fuel massive opportunities: a significant investment in residential RE and communities (companies that enable or enhance WFH will benefit - like Sonos, Sub-Zero, Restoration Hardware, and Slack), substantial repurposing of office real estate into residential or multi-purpose (e.g., coming soon Airbnb Office), cities will be cheaper, younger, and more diverse, all of which are inputs for startups (prediction: look for WeWork to rise from the ashes of COVID); 2) higher education going online – the pandemic moved 1.6 B people into online education and many will stay there – to look for: Coursera, expected of going public at $5B evaluation, and Indian edtech firm Byju, valuing at $15B); 3) healthtech on the rise (Healthtech startups raised $15.3B in 2020, up from $10.6B in 2019, according to Silicon Valley Bank);and 4) crypto on the rise (a $1.7T asset class that could be $130T (the size of the bond market), disperse trust (eliminate the need for inefficient intermediaries), and reduce human bias in the financial supply chain). [89] 20% of global workforce will continue to work remotely indefinitely. [91] In December the community and companies were intensely planning how to incorporate hybrid workplace into their cultures. In March companies are announcing their workplace re-entry plans; while some tech companies will work remotely indefinitely, Google, for example, commits $7B to offices and data centers in 2021.[348] Office is here to stay, just more flexible and focused on wellbeing. [324]